Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of techno-economic performance in an integrated multi-product Pistacia terebinthus L. (menengiç) biorefinery
Food and Bioproducts Processing, cilt.159, ss.571-582, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 159
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.fbp.2026.07.018
- Dergi Adı: Food and Bioproducts Processing
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Compendex, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, INSPEC, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO)
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.571-582
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Pistacia terebinthusL., Sustainable production, Techno-economic feasibility, Uncertainty analysis, Waste valorization
- İstanbul Yeni Yüzyıl Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
The industrial-scale assessment of Pistacia terebinthus L. (menengiç) fruit within integrated multi-product biorefinery systems was researched, and the techno-economic effects of process integration and product diversification were examined using SuperPro Design software. Due to the low scale and limited economic value of traditional production methods, a process simulation-based model was developed, and different integration scenarios were compared. Sensitivity and Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses were applied to evaluate system performance and enhance the system's decision support capabilities. The findings show that process integration diversifies the revenue structure by increasing byproduct utilization capacity, but leads to increased investment and operating costs. This results in a limited improvement in overall economic performance, while causing a decrease in profitability indicators in some scenarios. In contrast, the main product yield remained constant in all scenarios, revealing that integration did not change the core process efficiency. Sensitivity analyses for the fully integrated system showed that with an increase in production capacity from 800 to 1200 kg RM/batch, profitability improved significantly: NPV increased from USD $1.5 M to USD $4.7 M and IRR from 17% to 28%, while PBT decreased from 5.2 years to 3.3 years. Uncertainty analyses confirmed that all economic indicators exhibited a positive and narrow distribution, indicating that the system has an economically stable and low-risk structure. It demonstrates that menengiç-based integrated production systems improve sustainability and resource efficiency, but moderate integration provides a more balanced structure in terms of economic optimization. This study offers an essential decision support framework for low-risk and scalable biorefinery designs.